Hong Kong International Series

The Longines Hong Kong International Series Sunday morning is a set of four Group 1 races almost guaranteed to throw up close finishes. Racing in the Far East is very tight compared to its more expansive nature in Europe, and heads and necks tend to separate runners instead of lengths. Since the series went truly global, some top-notch horses have triumphed in the Vase (12f), Cup (10f), Mile (8f) and Sprint (6f) with a mixture of international superstars and local behemoths producing a heady mix of champions. The accompanying line graph expresses how the standard of the race has varied using Racing Post Ratings (RPR), a well-established and reliable measure of racehorse merit on a globally equivalent scale. The lines were produced from a five-period moving average of the weighted mean of the first three finishers, with weights 3, 2 and 1. This is the best way I have found to produce a measure of race-strength which is stable across time.

Click on the graph to enlarge:

The first point to note about the level of the graphs is that the standard of these races is generally less than might be encountered in the best Group 1 races in Europe. Given the massive prize-money on offer (the Cup, for instance, is among the richest races in the world), the justification for European-trained horses to travel east is there. The lines on the graph show different trajectories. The Cup and Vase are trending down, the Mile is heading up and the Sprint is stable but for the last renewal, which is probably just noise. My interpretation for these trends is this; the two races over middle distances have dipped a shade because there is a heavily skewed distribution of power at 10f plus towards Europe, especially for those with regular access to the all-time-great sire Galileo (Ire). Yes, there are plenty of high-class middle-distance turf horses elsewhere, especially in Japan, but the absolute best don't target these races with quite the same regularity as formerly.

The Mile is becoming more competitive gradually for related reasons; there is a bit more global equality in this division. Hong Kong-trained horses have had a stranglehold on the Mile and Able Friend (Aus) (Shamardal)'s presence is boosting recent numbers. The Sprint has seen brilliant horses like Sacred Kingdom (Aus) (Encosta De Lago {Aus}), Lord Kanaloa (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}) and Silent Witness (Aus) (El Moxie) on its roster since 2002, but the placed horses have run below the historical average of late. The stacked bar graphs for each race show the distribution of wins by the trainer's country. Local horses (represented by the red bars) have dominated the Sprint and the Mile, while France and the UK have tended to annex the mile-and-a-half Vase. The Cup over 10 furlongs shows the widest spread of successful countries.

Click on the graph to enlarge:

The European challenge in each of the four races this time can be summarized thus:

Vase: Defending champion Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB}) comes here off another G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe second and is a strong contender, notwithstanding his propensity to finish second more than win. But a raft of strong contenders more progressive than the Andre Fabre-trained 5-year-old oppose him. Britain's Cannock Chase (Lemon Drop Kid) (Pat Smullen replaces Ryan Moore) was ridden with a ton of confidence to win the GI Pattison Canadian International with a lot in hand and is developing into a top-notcher. Dariyan (Fr) (Shamardal) and Ming Dynasty (Fr) (King's Best) are interesting for France, while Highland Reel (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) would be dangerous with a soft lead. Great to see old Cirrus Des Aigles (Fr) (Even Top {Ire}), showing up for the sixth time.

Sprint: This looks as good as ever for the locals, with favorite Gold-Fun (Ire) (Le Vie Dei Colori {GB}) an obvious choice. Sole Power (GB) (Kyllachy {GB}) returns for a fourth crack, but I don't expect him to do better than second to the mighty Lord Kanaloa two years ago. Sole Power does stay six furlongs, technically, but it is obvious he is better cutting down rivals over five, the distance of all 12 of his wins.

Mile: Who would bet against Able Friend, even in the autumn of his career? Even if the world's best racehorse doesn't return to his best and back-up last year's win, Beauty Flame (Ire) (Footstepsinthesand {GB}), a winner at Royal Ascot when called Roca Tumu, is a strong second string for the locals. The Japanese colt Maurice (Jpn) (Screen Hero {Jpn}) has a shout, but let's focus on the best Euros. Mondialiste (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) is one of the star turns of the season, and ran off his face when second to Tepin (Bernstein) in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile. His late-running style makes him a threat, but I fancy Esoterique (Fr) (Danehill Dancer {Ire}) for Fabre as a source of value against the favorite. She wasn't at her best in America, but looked to be improving fast before that and the master trainer will have freshened her up. Toormore (Ire) (Arakan) needs to up his game a little.

Cup: A wide-open race which amounts to not much more than equine bingo, in truth. Trips will be vital and it is sure to be a thriller to watch. Free Port Lux (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}) isn't quite up to this level yet, and Gailo Chop (Fr) (Deportivo {GB}), a Group 1 winner in Australia last time, has a better chance for France because he is improving. Free Eagle (Ire) (High Chaparral {Ire}) holds the best form and represents Ireland and Dermot Weld. We will never know what would have happened in the G1 Irish Champion S. without catching that bump from Golden Horn (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}), and the High Chaparral colt again wasn't favored by the run in the Arc. If he can work out a trip here, the 10 furlongs and fast going should provide perfect conditions for a rebound.

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