Keeneland January Wraps With Solid Trade

By Lucas Marquardt 

The Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale concluded its four-day run yesterday in Lexington with declines in average and median, but with plenty of action on quality horses and solid trade from beginning to end, most agree the sale marked the near conclusion of a successful–and notably stable–2014 bloodstock sales season. 

In all, 948 horses sold at January for $35,305,500, an average of $37,242 that was down 6.8% from a year ago. The median of $16,000 was down 20%. Last year, from 1,027 horses sold, the average was $39,947 and the median $16,000. The RNA rate began high at January–it was 33.1% on day one and 29.2% through Book 1–but improved during Book 2 and checked in at an acceptable 25.2% by sale’s end. Last year’s RNA rate was 19.6%. 

Both renewals were roughly the same size; 1610 horses were catalogued this year; there were 1590 catalogued horses in 2014. 

“We might be a little off, but I don’t think it’s a reflection of the whole market,” said Keeneland Director of Sales Geoffrey Russell. “What comes out of the sales season of 2014 and January 2015 is that we have stability back in the market, which is a great thing. We had great interest in quality horses at every price level.” 

Select Sales’ Carrie Brogden, who not only consigns for herself and clients, but also breeds and pinhooks, agreed with that sentiment. 

“We didn’t have a lot of ‘commercial horses’ here, but I thought most of the horses did very well for what they were,” she said. “I think there’s fair market value out there. The good foals are bringing plenty. I bought a Dominus foal today for $67,000 [Hip 1386]. Candidly, if you handed me the lead-shank on 50% of the horses in Book 2, I wouldn’t take them–at any price. The fact that there were very few no-bids was encouraging, and we had mares I thought were worth $2,000 that brought $15,000. I think the market is very stable, which is good.” 

There was a single seven-figure horse at January, the $2.2 million sale-topper Up (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), who sold carrying a foal by War Front. Robert Naify and Jan Vanderbos’s Ran Jan Racing purchased the 6-year-old half-sister to the good young sire Dutch Art (GB) (Pivotal {GB}). Up’s first foal, a filly by War Front, followed her into the ring, and became the top-priced short yearling at January when knocked down to Solid/Litt Bloodstock for $800,000. The filly was purchased for LNJ Foxwoods. Four Star Sales consigned the pair as Hip 537 and Hip 538, respectively. 

Naify and Vanderbos aren’t known to play at that level of the market, but Russell pointed out that, when an offering like Up is put before the buying public, all serious breeders take note. 

“When certain items come to the market that you know you’re not going to get a second shot at, people step up to the plate and realize they have to buy it,” said Russell. “The interesting thing about Up is that there were three separate bidders at $2 million and above. It’s nice to see fresh faces.” 

The winning bidders of up, Ran Jan Stable, have secured a season to Tapit for 2015. 

The energy, and sale sheets, at January were perhaps tempered by two non-sales. Champion Blind Luck (Pollard’s Vision), who aborted her Midnight Lute foal prior to being offered, failed to sell at $1.4 million, while Foxy Danseur (Mr. Greeley), expected to be one of the sale’s top-priced mares, was a late scratch. 

Still, there was good trade in the middle and upper middle market. There were 24 horses at January who made $200,000 or more, exactly the same as last term at a sale topped by the $775,000 Ponche de Leona (Ponche), dam of Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno). Ten sold for $300,000 or more (compared to eight in ‘14); four for $400,000 or more (five in ‘14), and two–Up and her foal–eclipsed the $500,000 mark. Three horses made $500,000 or more last year: Ponche de Leona, as well as the $750,000 pair of Life Happened (Stravinsky) and Sweeter Still (Ire) (Rock of Gibraltar {Ire}) 
As always, Russell warned about drawing too many year-over-year conclusions. 

“We’ve said it ad nauseam, but you can’t really compare bloodstock sales, because you don’t know what product you’re getting from year to year,” he explained. “The difference between a broodmare and a yearling sale is that when you’re buying these factories, you’re very specific about what you want. At the yearling sales, if you don’t get this one, you can go on to the next. At the bloodstock sales, you don’t just go on to the next; they’re looking at everything: pedigree, conformation, who they’re covered by.” 

If we separate out short yearlings, numbers were roughly stable from a year ago. In 2014, a total of 378 yearlings sold at January for an average of $31,488 and a median of $18,500. They were topped by a $235,000 colt by Kitten’s Joy–Gata Bella. 

This year, 324 yearlings sold at January for an average of $31,847–a boost of 1.1%. The median was $15,000, which was down a more substantial 18.9%. 

At the very top of the short yearling market, numbers seemed to have improved a bit. At the 2014 January Sale, 22 yearlings brought $100,000 or more. Those 22 yearlings averaged $149,318 and had a median price of $140,000. In 2015, by comparison, 21 yearlings sold for $100,000 or more. These 21 averaged $189,762 (+27.1%) and had a median price of $150,000 (+7.1%). 

The strength of the market for desirable short yearlings was evident from beginning to end, said Russell. “On Day 3, we had an Into Mischief colt bring $150,000,” he offered as an example. “Maybe the best one was a horse who was knocked down to a pinhooking group who signed the ticket All Lined Up, so obviously all the pinhookers walked up the hill and lined up to bid on the horse.” 

Of course, it’s not all roses, said Russell. “There is a softness in the market for those horses that don’t tick all the boxes,” he said. “That’s something we just have to deal with.” 

As the 2014 bloodstock season draws to a close, Russell says there are two big takeaways: the stability of the market, and the continued revived interest in broodmares. 

“The confidence level of people reinvesting long term is the best thing that came out of the 2014 sales season,” he said. “We saw a little bit of it in ‘13; we saw a lot more of it in ‘14. And at all levels of the market, and that’s what’s going to help the industry move forward. I’m a big believer that having stability in this industry is better than having another big jump up. We had two straight Septembers that went up very heavily. If we had another 20% jump, that would have created an inflationary bubble. I’d much rather have slight increases over the next couple of years and set a foundation for our industry. And then have a nice big move up [laughs].” 

For complete results, visit www.keeneland.com. 

There remains one more major bloodstock sale of the season in Kentucky. Fasig-Tipton holds its February Winter Mixed Sale in Lexington on Feb. 8-9. OBS holds its Winter Mixed Sale Jan. 28-29. 

Milfer Farm Strikes for Malibu Moon Colt… 
Veterinarian Jon Davis, who owns Milfer Farms in upstate New York, struck for the day’s top-priced horse, a yearling colt by Malibu Moon. Davis, standing out back, outlasted a bidder inside the pavilion to secure the colt for $120,000. Four Star Sales consigned the chestnut as Hip 1575. 

“Don’t know yet,” Davis said when asked if the plan was to race or re-sell the colt. “But we liked his resale value; Malibu Moon is a top sire.” 

The Kentucky-bred colt was produced by the 9-year-old Medal Winner (Medaglia d’Oro), a winning half-sister to MGSW Skip to the Stone (Skip Trial) and SW My Heavenly Sign (Jolie’s Halo). 

The colt was purchased in utero when JSM Equine and Greathouse Horse Property LLC bought his dam for $200,000 at the 2013 Keeneland November Sale. That partnership put Medal Winner back in foal to Shackleford and sold her to Figueira do Lago for $40,000 two months ago at November. 

It was Milfer Farm’s lone purchase at January, but not for a lack of trying. “I looked at several, but wasn’t able to get any of the ones I wanted,” said Davis. “Just about every year, we try to invest in broodmares and improve our quality. We’re starting to get more into pinhooking, too.” 

Davis said the Malibu Moon colt might be sent to New York, “But we might leave him down here also,” he said. 
Milfer has in the past stood Cure the Blues, Spectacular Bid and Phone Trick, and currently stands Golden Missile and Polish Pro. Milfer has its own broodmare band and also boards for outside clients. Davis said he’s bullish on the Empire State right now. 

“It’s a very strong market, and it’s a great time to be in New York,” he said. 

Coronation Investments secured Thursday’s top-priced mare, the well-related 6-year-old Trophy Gal (Awesome Again–Devotion Unbridled, by Unbridled), for $105,000. Offered by Mill Ridge Sales as Hip 1335 and selling in foal to the red-hot young sire The Factor (War Front), the unraced Trophy Gal was produced by SW & GSP Devotion Unbridled and is a half-sister to GSW Unbridled Humor (Distorted Humor). It was the second time in three years she’s been through the ring at January. Gentry Stable purchased her from breeder Live Oak Plantation for $45,000 two years ago. Trophy Gal had a Mizzen Mast colt last spring. Coronation Investments is operated by Ben McElroy, Ken Donworth and Dell Ridge Farm’s Des Ryan. The men typically buy mares at Keeneland January and resell them the following year at Keeneland November.