Law Against the Monarchy

LAW AGAINST THE MONARCHY 
By James Trotter 
Though a handful of Grade 1’s are still to come on the South African racing calendar after this weekend, the G1 Vodacom Durban July is the destination to which all paths lead, and is the climactic pinnacle of the country’s racing season. As the GI Kentucky Derby is to the U.S. and the G1 Melbourne Cup is to Australia, the Durban July is the one race every owner, trainer, breeder and jockey wants to win. It is the one race that garners national public interest–the one race that will see the winner in headlines throughout South Africa, its name immortalized on the list of champions to have won Africa’s richest race. 
Nearly 63,000 people are expected to pour into Durban’s Greyville Racecourse today to take part in one of the country’s largest and most famous social events. Though many will be in attendance more for the fashion and festivities, those who will have their attention on the racing will be in for a cracking show. In addition to the timeless prestige of a Durban July victory, Horse of the Year and champion 3-year-old titles will be up for the taking. 
The hype leading up to the race has been all about the 3-year-olds, with the top four spots in the betting–and six of the top eight–being filled by members of the sophomore division. This may be partly due to the perceived strength of the 3-year-old crop; however, the trend has been exacerbated by the fact that a number of the country’s leading older horses are stationed overseas or are under quarantine to be exported. 
South Africa’s leading older horse Yorker (SAf) (Jet Master {SAf}), for instance, had to begin his series of quarantines in June in order to participate in next year’s Dubai World Cup Carnival. His non-attendance today has left the Horse of the Year title up for grabs. When the country’s leading female, Beach Beauty (SAf) (Dynasty {SAf}), defected at a late stage to defend her title in the G1 Garden Province S. against her own sex, the gates to the July’s treasures were opened even wider for the oncoming 3-year-old invasion. 

The 3-Year-Old Invasion… 
That charge is being led by the two colts currently vying for champion sophomore honors–Louis the King (SAf) (Black Minnaloushe) and Legislate (SAf) (Dynasty {SAf}). The former reeled off four consecutive victories in Johannesburg, including the South African Triple 
Crown and two Grade 1’s before being conquered by Legislate last out when a close-up third in the G1 Daily News 2000 May 31. Louis the King turned for home in last place that day and never had a clean passage up the straight, and is certainly better than the result suggests. ‘Louis’ has already proven that he is as tenacious as he is talented. He has no stamina doubts, and is remarkably consistent. If anyone beats him today, they will have to work for it. 
Legislate’s victory in the G1 Daily News 2000 fueled an already lofty reputation established with an easy G1 Cape Derby win Feb. 1 and his G2 KZN Guineas score May 3. After pulling early in the Daily News 2000 and sitting near the tail of the field alongside Louis the King, Legislate was allowed to make his run around horses entering the straight and exploded to the front. Once on the lead, however, he hung towards the inside and begun to ease down, almost being caught in the final strides by the late-finishing Rake’s Chestnut (SAf) (Horse Chestnut {SAf}). Whether it was fitness, immaturity, or the jockey’s miscalculation that day that caused him to gear down is the question that should be answered today, and that answer may have a major impact on the result. The one thing that is certain is that trainer Justin Snaith’s charge has class in abundance, and his name would not look out of place if it were to join his sire’s on the Durban July roll of honor. Counting against Legislate, however, is that he must concede weight to all of his contemporaries and defy history in carrying the most weight by a 3-year-old to victory in the Durban July. 
The next two 3-year-olds in the betting, Futura (SAf) (Dynasty {SAf}) and Rake’s Chestnut, are both lightly raced and somewhat unknown quantities. Rake’s Chestnut looked out of place coming into the Daily News 2000, having only one victory to his name from three starts. Two-time Durban July-winning trainer Geoff Woodruff has made it clear that he sees Louis the King as his main July hope over Rake’s Chestnut; however, this improving son of South African icon Horse Chestnut (SAf) has appeared to improve as the distances increase, and it would not be a shock to find him in the winner’s circle. 
Low weight will be carried by Futura, whose inclusion in the race brought with it an air of controversy. Winning four of his first five starts in progressive fashion, he had been tipped as a likely July candidate long before taking on stakes company for the first time. The Durban July is a handicap, and so connections were taking the shrewd gamble of qualifying for the July under the lowest possible weight. The path chosen, therefore, was to avoid the Classics and slip in the side door by facing up against older handicappers in the G3 Cup Trial–a recognized prep race for the Durban July. When Futura lost that race by a long head June 7, it appeared as though that plan had gone up in flames. Last week, however, when the final field was unveiled, he had scraped in. Futura is a colt that has shown glimpses of high-class ability, and is one who will likely improve with the extra distance he tries today. He receives up to seven pounds from his peers. 

Experience Over Youth… 
The older brigade is led by triple Grade 1 winner Capetown Noir (SAf) (Western Winter), who wears blinkers for the first time after not appearing up to his best form in his last two starts–a third in a Grade 2 here May 3 and a most recent fourth in the G1 Gold Challenge June 7. Though the Dean Kannemeyer charge did win the G1 Cape Derby over 2000 meters last year, his best form has looked to be over a mile, and the July’s 2200 meter distance still holds many stamina doubts for him. A horse who should see out the trip is Gold Challenge winner King of Pain (SAf) (Greys Inn); however, in the last 30 years, only three horses have won the July with 128 pounds or more, and so a victory under top weight is no easy task. 
Trainer Sean Tarry has won the last two runnings of the Durban July for his primary owner, Chris van Niekerk, and the pair have two arrows in their bow this year: Halve the Deficit (SAf) (Right Approach {GB}) and Whiteline Fever (SAf)(Right Approach {GB}). Both horses have won Grade 2’s this past season and come into the race with form; however, due to his lower weight and better record over the distance, Halve the Deficit, winner of the G2 Colorado King S. Apr. 5 and most recently second in the G3 Jubilee H. June 14, is currently the pick of the market. 
Only three fillies have won the July in the last 30 years, and four have the chance to join that exulted list today, with dual Grade 1-winning sophomore In the Fast Lane (SAf) (Jet Master {Saf}), last year’s Triple Tiara winner Cherry on the Top (SAf) (Tiger Ridge) and Mike de Kock’s multiple group-winning and Group 1-placed Espumanti (GB) (Dansili {GB}) all in with chances.