Mark Cramer: Handicapping the 2014 Arc

The scientific method can only go so far when you have a crowded field of 20, most of them multiple Group 1 winners, over a mile and a half, where one false move can destroy the chances of the best horse, as was the case of Orfevre (Jpn) (Stay Gold {Jpn} in the 2012 G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. 

Even the best of statistics can have two opposite logics. For example, fillies have won three of the last six Arcs, even though they represent a small percentage of the entrants. But in the long run, the stat for fillies has not been grand. 
Taghrooda (GB) (Sea the Stars {Ire}) is the top-ranked filly in Sunday’s race and favored in the race books at between 4-1 and 5-1. She won the G1 Investec Oaks and then beat the boys in the prestigious G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. She was a disappointing second in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks, but the bookies are not concerned with that blip on the screen. 

John Gosden, arguably the most dominant trainer in the world, has won three of his last four and seven of his last 20. He’s won just about everything around the world, but the heavens have not favored him in the Arc (bad weather and minor injury scratches), where he is still patiently waiting. We could say that his first Arc win is inevitable, but will it be now? 

The two horses who finished three lengths behind Taghrooda in the King George at Ascot did not come back to win, nor has any horse from that field won a race since then. Nevertheless, Taghrooda has won four of five career starts and has done nearly everything asked of her. 

Ectot (GB) (Hurricane Run {Ire}), with six wins in seven career races–and six straight–was stopped by a roadblock in his voyage to the Arc, having been forced to sit out the summer stakes races because of an injury. His return was impressive, winning a major Arc prep, the G2 Prix Niel, over the same course and distance as the Arc three weeks before the big event. Ectot wavers between 5-1 and 6-1 with the bookies.

Of all Arc prep races, the Prix Niel, for 3-year-olds, has produced the most Arc winners. That could favor Ectot, except for the fact that the Niel has failed to produce an Arc winner since 2006: another contradictory stat. 

In the majority of cases, the G1 Prix Vermeille, for fillies and mares, is raced in a faster time the same day than the Niel because the Vermeille is a goal in itself, while the Niel is simply a prep. But this year, the Niel had a faster time than the Vermeille, another piece of information favoring Ectot. 

A more subjective argument for Ectot is that rider Gregory Benoist decided to stay on the Elie Lellouche-trained colt rather than ride the Prix de Diane winner Avenir Certain (Fr) (Le Havre {Ire}). Finishing several positions behind Ectot in the Niel was the surprise winner of the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp and several other classy horses. 

Avenir Certain, at 7-1 in the books, also has the filly stat and weight advantage in her advantage and is undefeated in six lifetime races. Like Gosden, the dominant trainer Jean-Claude Rouget is still in search of his first Arc win. The long-term stats on Rouget show a slowdown in win percentage in the fall. 

At first glance, the field defeated by Avenir Certain in the Prix de Diane seems unexceptional, but the third and fifth finishers Ball Dancing (Exhange Rate) and Xcellence (Fr) (Champs Elysees {GB}) came back to run one-two in the GII Sands Point S. at Belmont Sept. 13. 

The filly’s chances for stretching out an extra 300 meters from the Prix de Diane distance are questionable since there is sprint breeding on her mother’s side and the only time Le Havre went beyond a mile was in his G1 French Derby win at 10 1/2 furlongs. 

The next two positions in the bookmaker odds are held by Japanese runners. The saga of Japanese near misses includes four second-place finishers and one third. Players believing in predestination are mulling over which inevitability will come first, a Gosden win or a Japanese victory. The three Japanese contestants tend to race in the back of the pack and close a ton of ground, not the ideal scenario for an Arc winner. 

Just A Way (Jpn) (Heart’s Cry {Jpn}) turned in one of the most impressive performances of the year with his 6 1/4-length win in March’s G1 Dubai Duty Free in which he broke the Meydan course record for nine furlongs. He is also 7-1 in the race books. 

A late bloomer at five, Just A Way has won his last four races, including a four-length win over Gentildonna (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), who came back to take both the Japan Cup and the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic. 

Just A Way would have to mete out his energy over an extra two furlongs in the Arc. He would also have to break a horrendous Arc statistic for horses coming in off a lay-off: he hasn’t raced since June 8. Three-year-olds have won eight of the last 10 Arcs, and 16 of the last 20, another formidable stat that Just A Way must confront. 

Just A Way’s sire Heart’s Cry (Sunday Silence) defeated none other than Deep Impact at 1 9/16 miles and also won the Sheema Classic at 1 1/2 miles. He has sired numerous winners at 12 furlongs and beyond. The distance should not be a problem. The layoff is the other major question. I would like to assume that trainer Naosuke Sugai knows what he is doing. Just A Way’s work at Chantilly looked good. 

Harp Star (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) has the 3-year-old stat and the filly trend in her favor. She does stay every time, but the surface may be a question since she’s only raced over firm courses. She won a prep race in August, defeating a fellow Arc rival in the quirky grey Gold Ship (Jpn) (Stay Gold {Jpn}). They were 5 lengths best of the rest. Stay Gold is also the sire of Orfevre. Harp Star is currently 8-1, while Gold Ship is floating between 12 and 16-1. 

The distance will be no trouble for Gold Ship, since this 5-year-old has won races at 3,000 meters, but a typical slow start probably caused him to be defeated by Harp Star. Harp Star (four wins, two seconds in six races) has only raced once at the Arc distance, nearly getting up in the G1 Yushun Himba to catch a horse that went on to win his next race. Deep closers usually do not get up in time in the Arc. The presence of these three Japanese horses, whose come-from-behind races resemble those of Zenyatta, will be an added thrill. 

Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}), last year’s convincing Arc winner, is listed at 9-1 with the bookmakers. Madame Head-Maarek has blamed Treve’s three disappointing prep races on a health condition and she feels that the filly can win again if the problem is solved. In an Oct. 1 Racing Post article, Mme Head says that Treve “has rediscovered a big part of her powers,” adding that “the objective has always been to make her a double Arc winner.” 

Following the Racing Post interview, her odds dropped from 10-1 to 9-1. For Treve to win this year, she has to be better than last year, because she no longer gets the weight advantage for 3-year-old fillies. 

Within minutes of the Thursday morning news that Aidan O’Brien might be supplementing Tapestry (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), she was posted at her 14-1 and her odds began dropping. She’s now 10-1. It will cost €120,000 to supplement the 3-year-old filly. 

At first glance at the past performances, she looks like an erratic contender. However, the only time Ryan Moore rode her happens to be in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks when at 8/1 she defeated the previously undefeated and 1/5 Taghrooda. Ryan Moore will be aboard in the Arc, and if this is the case of a horse-for-jockey, then Tapestry becomes a very live longshot. 

Tough game. Two years ago, Solemia (Ire) (Poliglote {GB}), a filly I did not even mention in my TDN article, won the Arc. So I’ll mention a few possible longshots. The G1 Prix Foy for older horses has produced five Arc winners, but none since 1992. This year’s winner, Ruler of the World (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), with four wins in nine races and a seventh in last year’s Arc, will be ridden by a multiple Arc winner, Lanfranco Dettori. Ruler of the World is between 14-1 and 16-1. He won’t get the slow pace he benefitted from in the Foy. 

Second in the Foy was Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB}), trained by Andre Fabre, whose seven wins are the most for any trainer in the Arc. Flintshire has nine career races. On soft or yielding tracks, he shows four races with zero wins. On good-to-firm courses, he’s raced five times with four wins and a second. We’ve had a semi-drought in Paris and the rains are not sure to arrive before the Arc is run. The opportunistic Fabre often has horses finish close up at huge odds. In last year’s Arc, his Penglai Pavilion (Monsun {Ger}) finished 5th at 54/1. If the track is still dry, Flintshire becomes an in-the-money longshot inclusion. 

Roger Varian’s Kingston Hill (GB) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}) has shown the class, as a runner-up in the G1 Epsom Derby and as a convincing winner of the marathon G1 St Leger, but seems to prefer softer going than the anticipated dry surface for Sunday. Above all, no St Leger winner has ever won the Arc. You’d have to decide if 16-1 is worth a bet when the statistic says 0%. Post 20 won’t help his chances. 

The 33-1 Prince Gibraltar (Fr) (Rock of Gibraltar {Ire}) was able to finish ahead of Teletext (Empire Maker) over the heavy surface in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris, and that same horse was defeated by Ectot in the Prix Niel. The scenarios were not the same, however, since Teletext is better on firm and Price Gibraltar favors soft going. But if you handicap according to who-beat-who, then Rouget’s Prince Gibraltar would be intriguing because of the odds gap with Ectot. 

Much has been said about Just A Way’s 119-day layoff going into the Arc. But it should be noted that in Mar. 2 G2 Nakayama Kinen, he was victorious by 3 1/2 lengths following a 126-day layoff. We could call that a “pattern match”. Handicappers must always confront the jockey factor in the Arc, and this year’s Japanese rider contingent has not had the French racing experience. However, Just A Way is the highest-ranked horse in Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings, and if he stays around 7-1, then he seems to represent the best value.