Maurice a Vulnerable Favorite in the Yasuda Kinen?

For a reigning Horse of the Year who is looking for an eighth consecutive victory and fifth in a row at the highest level, there will be plenty of punters happy to oppose Maurice (Jpn) (Screen Hero {Jpn}) when he goes in defence of his title in Sunday's G1 Yasuda Kinen at Tokyo Racecourse.

Following his narrow victory 12 months ago, when Clarente (Jpn) (Dance in the Dark {Jpn}) and Fiero (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) were third and fourth past the post, respectively, the burly Maurice got six months off and resumed with a smooth defeat of Fiero in the G1 Mile Championship Nov. 22. Faced with the daunting task of taking on Able Friend (Aus) (Shamardal) on that one's home turf in the G1 Longines Hong Kong Mile Dec. 13, the bay beat that one into third while wrapping up his year-end accolades. Penciled in for a trip to Dubai for the G1 Dubai Turf–a race ultimately won by compatriot Real Steel (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn})–Maurice made his seasonal debut back in Hong Kong and proved the facile winner of the G1 Champions Mile, besting Contentment (Aus) (Hussonet) by a two-length margin that understated the ease with which it was done.

That's the good news.

There are also some negatives surrounding Maurice Sunday afternoon. By the admission of his own connections, he may not be at 100% coming into the Yasuda Kinen, his trackwork has been average at best and he's carrying some excess condition. Still, stable confidence remains.

“It's taken a bit of time to get him back into good order, including posting fast times,” commented assistant trainer Masanori Watanabe. “Since a week ago, his breathing's improved, as we'd expect with a horse like him. In his latest work on the turf course, his breathing was good and his overall condition is good.”

Real Steel faces the starter for just the 10th time in his career and represents a true threat to the favorite, provided this 1600-metre trip–one he has never tested before–does not prove too sharp. Conqueror of Duramente (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}) in an early-season Group 3 over 1800m in 2015, Real Steel was equally proficient over longer, with runner-up efforts in the G2 Kobe Shimbun Hai (2400m) and in the G1 Kikuka Sho (3000m). A useful third to Duramente in the G2 Nakayama Kinen on seasonal debut Feb. 28, he exits a strong score from Euro Charline (GB) (Myboycharlie {Ire}) in the Dubai Turf when last seen Mar. 26.

Isla Bonita (Jpn) (Fuji Kiseki {Jpn}), third to Lovely Day (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}) in last year's G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn) over 2000m, was favored when third in the Mile Championship to close out the season. Well below his bests in two starts over nine and 10 furlongs this season, the dark bay is a bounce-back candidate cutting back to the mile in the Yasuda Kinen.

Contentment gets a third shot at Maurice in his first trip away from Hong Kong. A decent fifth in the Hong Kong Mile, the John Size trainee ran on best of the rest to fill second spot in the Champions Mile, but he'd need to improve by several lengths to be a factor in what looms a hot renewal.