Mubtaahij Looks For Real

by Bill Finley, special to espn.com 

It used to be that the first horse you could throw out when handicapping the Kentucky Derby was any horse that last started in the United Arab Emirates Derby. Though the race is worth $2 million and is a 100-point race on the Derby prep points scale the UAE Derby winners have always been a terrible fit for the Kentucky Derby. They have been grass horses, synthetic horses, horses under-prepared for the challenges of the Kentucky Derby, horses with just ordinary ability or some combination of the four.

The UAE Derby was inaugurated in 2000 and since 10 horses from that race have started in the Kentucky Derby. Not a one has come close. The six UAE Derby winners to run in Kentucky have finished sixth, eighth, ninth, eighth and seventh and one, Daddy Long Legs, was eased.

But this time around things figure to be different. Mubtaahij doesn’t have to win the Kentucky Derby. But he could. And, unlike the previous starters out of Dubai, it’s hard to imagine him getting embarrassed.  Mubtaahij bears little resemblance to the others who have come out of Dubai.

Consider:

He is anything but a turf or synthetic horse. Despite European breeding that suggests he should be a turf specialist, he was a major disappointment in two grass tries as a 2-year-old in England and did not thrive until he got on to the dirt track at Meydan in Dubai. He’s three-for-four on the dirt, including his eight-length triumph in the UAE Derby.

He should have a perfect foundation for the Derby. He’s had three starts this year and four since Dec. 31. He can flat out run. There’s always some question as to the quality of the field in the UAE Derby, but Mubtaahij was so impressive that you have to look at what he did and not who he beat.

Then there’s the trainer. The South African Mike DeKock is renowned as one of the best trainers on the planet and has won major races all over the world. De Kock has run only a handful of horses in the U.S., but has proven he knows how to win here. He won the 2000 Broward at Gulfstream with Horse Chestnut and in the 2013 Arlington Million his The Apache crossed the wire first only to be disqualified.

He’s never started a horse in the Kentucky Derby before and admits that, initially, he wasn’t thinking that direction with Mubtaahij.

“I’m not sure when the [nominating] entry was due, I think in January, but at that time Pat Cummings [who runs the website dubairacenight.com] came to me and said, ‘Have you ever thought of the Kentucky Derby?'” De Kock said. “I just said, ‘To be honest, no,’ and he said, ‘Well, if your horse comes through the Triple Crown races in Dubai, you ought to consider it, so why don’t you enter it? So we entered. The way he came through all the races, plus his whole demeanor and his temperament, and the fact that he’s an easy horse to travel, we thought why not, let’s give it a dash. And then when he goes and wins really well in the UAE Derby, you know, I suppose you get a little bit of confidence and you think ‘What the hell, let’s have a crack at it.’
In some years it’s possible that Mubtaahij would be the second or third choice in Kentucky. This year he figures to be the sixth or seventh. This is one of the deepest Derby fields in decades and it will take a very good effort by a very good horse to win the race.

“I am very impressed by what I see, and obviously, as I said earlier on, I probably picked one of the worst years to try and come to the Derby from another country,” he said. “There are some very serious horses; there’s not only American Pharoah, there’s some proper horses there, so I have a healthy respect for them, there’s no doubt.”

There are always issues when shipping horses across the globe, and the biggest one Mubtaahij will face is that his regular feed is not approved in the U.S., so De Kock has had to go to a Plan B. He admits that could be a problem.

“I think that is probably the most significant thing with all the traveling,” the trainer said. “It’s obviously something that is out of our control and it’s an FDA regulation, and the feed that he was on is not registered in the US. I do understand where they’re coming from, but no trainer ever, or athlete, would like to change the regular diet going into any sort of event. The diet that I’ve changed to is obviously something I do know a little bit about and have used before, but, effectively, it’s not what he’s used to regularly. How much bearing that would have on his performance, quite frankly, I’m not that sure, but just from a trainer’s psyche, it’s not ideal, let’s put it that way.”

So it may not be easy for Mubtaahij to win the Kentucky Derby. The food is one problem, competitors like American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem is another, more serious problem. But this is not your typical UAE Derby winner. Take him lightly at your own risk.

Reprinted with permission of espn.com. For more articles by Bill Finley and others on horse racing, visit http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/