Pedigree Insights: American Pharoah

by Andrew Caulfield

REBEL S.-GII, $750,000, OPX, 3-14, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:45 3/5, sy. 
1–AMERICAN PHAROAH, 119, c, 3, by Pioneerof the Nile 
     1st Dam: Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman 
     2nd Dam: Exclusive Rosette, by Ecliptical 
     3rd Dam: Zetta Jet, by Tri Jet 
($300,000 yrl '13 FTSAUG). O/B-Zayat Stables (KY); 
T-Bob Baffert; J-Victor Espinoza. $450,000. Lifetime 
Record: Ch. 2-year-old male, MGISW, 4-3-0-0, 
$811,500. Werk Nick Rating: A+++ *Triple Plus*. 
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the brisnet.com chart, the brisnet.com PPs or the free brisnet.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

When Pioneerof The Nile retired to stud, his fee was no higher than $20,000 (and was soon to fall to $15,000). Even so, Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May seemed likely to become embedded in the DNA of his best progeny. Pioneerof The Nile had himself made it to the GI Kentucky Derby, finishing second to Mine That Bird in 2009, and so had his sire Empire Maker, runner-up as the clear favorite in 2003. His grandsire Unbridled had fared better, accounting for Summer Squall and Pleasant Tap in 1990. 

Unbridled's influence on the Kentucky Derby also extends to the 1990 winner Grindstone, who became the grandsire of Mine That Bird, the decisive conqueror of Pioneerof The Nile six years ago. Even Pioneerof The Nile's Argentine-bred broodmare sire Lord At War has made his mark, occupying the same position in the pedigree of the 2002 Derby winner War Emblem.

Pioneerof The Nile has wasted no time in proving that he has the potential to extend his sire line's impact on this great race. Cairo Prince, a colt from his first crop, was the early spring favorite for the 2014 Derby on the strength of an impressive record of three wins from his first four starts, including an impressive victory in the GII Holy Bull S. 

Unfortunately, Cairo Prince was found to have injured an ankle after he had finished fourth as the hot favorite for the GI Florida Derby and is now covering his first mares at Airdrie. 
Pioneerof The Nile's connections have every chance of being compensated for Cairo Prince's shortfall, as his second crop has produced an even more impressive candidate in American Pharoah. 

Whereas Cairo Prince received 118 on the Experimental Free H., American Pharoah was honored with co-top weight of 126lb with Texas Red (Afleet Alex) on the 2014 edition. This placed him 4lb above Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway), 5lb above Dortmund (Big Brown), 7lb above Daredevil (More Than Ready), 8lb above El Kabeir (Scat Daddy), 10lb above Upstart (Flatter) and 11lb above International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus). Judging by his ultra-smooth display in Saturday's GII Rebel S., American Pharoah has lost none of his ability during the long absence since his victory in the GI FrontRunner S. 

Of course the Rebel S.'s roll of honor features such names as Will Take Charge, Lookin At Lucky, Curlin, Smarty Jones, Victory Gallop and Pine Bluff, so it can be an excellent stepping stone. Also, American Pharoah's physique and his male line both suggest that he ought to be even more effective this year than last, which is an exciting possibility. 

In assessing Pioneerof The Nile's career, it mustn't be forgotten that his first crop wasn't huge, numbering 86 named foals. Yet these 86 included the graded stakes winners Cairo Prince, Jojo Warrior, Vinceremos and Midnight Storm, plus the stakes-winning Conquest Top Gun. Another five were good enough to be placed at graded level, including the Preakness S. third Social Inclusion. All this adds up to a most encouraging start for a $20,000 stallion. 

As with many young stallions, Pioneerof The Nile wasn't as popular in his second and third seasons, with his book falling from 130 mares in 2010 to 91 in 2011 and 89 in 2012. He is therefore credited with no more than 220 foals in his first three crops, with American Pharoah coming from a second crop of around 60 named foals. His third crop is of a similar size, so he will do well to match the scale of success enjoyed by his first crop–that is until his subsequent crops reach the track. He covered 144 mares at a fee of $15,000 in his fourth season, in 2013, followed by 131 at a fee of $20,000 last year. The promise shown by his first two crops has propelled his fee up to $60,000 this year and I'm sure demand will be high. 

Although Pioneerof The Nile comes from a solid enough family, it isn't so strong that stallion success looked guaranteed. Perhaps the credit belongs to his sire Empire Maker, but I suspect that his broodmare sire Lord At War has also worked his magic. 

I would be interested if anyone could give me some insight into Lord At War's character as a stallion. Looking at some old breeding statistics, I see that he covered 33 mares in 1987 for 13 live foals, 40 mares in 1988 for 22 foals and 64 mares in 1989 for 38 foals. Although his percentages were normal in some years, he is credited with having sired no more than 391 foals during a lengthy career (with his 44 black-type winners representing an excellent 11 per cent). This makes me wonder whether his fertility was normal, or whether–perhaps–he wasn't the most enthusiastic coverer. The seed for this speculation was planted by War Emblem, a notoriously reluctant coverer who has a Lord At War mare as his dam. 

Lord At War's daughters did very well with Empire Maker, another of them producing Icon Project, a GI winner over a mile and a quarter in the U.S. after showing that she stayed a mile and a half in Europe. 

The top half of American Pharoah's pedigree may suggest that a mile and a quarter will pose no problem, but what about the dam's side? His dam Littleprincessemma isn't much help here, as she raced only twice, as a juvenile, and didn't show much sign of ability. However, the fact that Littleprincessemma realised $135,000 as a weanling and $250,000 as a yearling tells us that she had some talented siblings, as she was by a $10,000 stallion. 

Her sire Yankee Gentleman is a son of Storm Cat, as is Stormin Fever, who sired a pair of notable performers from Littelprincessemma's dam, Exclusive Rosette. The first, Storm Wolf, won the GII Lazaro Barrera Memorial over seven furlongs as a 3-year-old. The second, Misty Rosette, also displayed plenty of speed, notably landing the GIII Old Hat S. over six and a half furlongs and finishing third in the GI Test S. over seven. This speed is hardly surprising, as one of Exclusive Rosette's main achievements was to cover Atlantic City's five-furlong turf course in 00:57.31. 

Mention of Storm Cat reminds me that Empire Maker owed his Kentucky Derby second Bodemeister to a Storm Cat mare and the nine-furlong Grade I winner In Lingerie to another  Stormin Fever and Yankee Gentleman were similar in that they both scored over a mile and a sixteenth even though they both enjoyed most of their success over shorter distances. Yankee Gentleman's sole stakes victory came in the Pirate's Bounty H. over six furlongs as a four-year-old. This suggests that American Pharoah's ability to stay a mile and a quarter cannot be taken for granted, but he was very relaxed at Oaklawn Park, prior to putting in all of his best work in the final quarter, so I am optimistic about his prospects as the distances lengthen. Remember, it was one of Yankee Gentleman's close relations who produced Shared Belief, recent winner of the Santa Anita H. over a mile and a quarter.