Tough to Go Past Top Four in BMW Hong Kong Derby

With HK$18 million in the pot, Sunday's BMW Hong Kong Derby is the richest and most coveted prize on the local calendar. And to be sure, some very good horses have won the 2000-metre centrepiece, including Vengeance of Rain (NZ), Viva Pataca (GB), Ambitious Dragon (NZ), Akeed Mofeed (GB), Designs on Rome (Ire) and Werther (NZ), each of whom subsequently went on to international Group 1 glory at home and abroad. And the sky was the limit for 2017 hero Rapper Dragon (Aus) (Street Boss), who was tragically lost two starts later. Another thing those gallopers had in common was a skinny price on the tote come Derby day, and Sunday's test figures very much in the same mold.

Singapore Sling (SAf) (Philanthropist) has done little wrong in his four starts in Hong Kong, with two victories, including a comfortable defeat of Exultant (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) in the Hong Kong Classic Cup (1800m) last time. A perfect draw in three combined with a less-ideal barrier for Hong Kong Classic Mile hero Nothingilikemore (Aus) (Husson {Arg}) could land the Tony Millard charge narrow favouritism come 4:35 Sunday afternoon.

Exultant and Singapore Sling will not be compromised by the Derby trip, but the same cannot be said definitively for Nothingilikemore, who won six of his first seven at distances up to the metric mile, but was only fourth in the Classic Cup. He does own an excuse when he was slow into stride and got home well from the back, but can he display the same turn of foot as the other market rivals when push comes to shove in the final 200m? You won't get paid too much to find out.

Ping Hai Star (NZ) (Nom du Jeu {NZ}) was probably not meant to be a Derby starter as late as December, when he was rated just 77. Since then, he has won three straight, each jaw-dropping in its own way. Joao Moreira has opted for stablemate Nothingilikemore, an understandable decision for sure, but John Size has reached out to none other than Ryan Moore to pilot this up-and-comer, who will take plenty of support from the betting public.

For the winner to come from somewhere outside of this top four is difficult to conceive, but, alas, they don't run races on paper. To follow is a 'cheat sheet' of sorts for the Derby, an easy read and less an exercise in handicapping as it is an introduction to the cast.