Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets – highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DEROSA: GIII Withers S. – We're going to go against the morning-line favorite in all three TwinSpires.com Triple Crown Throwdown races, though I'm not expecting the full morning- line price on any of these picks. In the Withers S., you have to fade the X-to-5 co-favorites Firenze Fire and Avery Island, though of the two I prefer the latter, the price is no bargain on either. Bal Harbour ships north for Todd Pletcher fresh off a runner-up finish behind Mask but ahead of the well-regarded Dak Attack. The 1 1/8 miles distance is a legitimate question, but the price compensates to find out. Selection: #3 Bal Harbour (6-1).
GII Holy Bull S. – Speaking of Pletcher, we like him in the Holy Bull as well with Audible, who has never run a bad race even in defeat on debut when breaking slow and making up a ton of ground. He's gotten faster at each point of all in all three of his races and an ideal draw helps his chances. Selection: #4 Audible (6-1).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – We'll grant a mulligan to Shivermetimbers' last and play him to bounce back. I don't know that he'll be the best of this group in two months, but I do think he is now and is the play. Selection: #5 Shivermetimbers (7-2).
SHERACK: GIII Withers S. – The two that figure to vie for favoritism–Firenze Fire and Avery Island–can certainly win this, but I'm just not a fan of either. The lightly raced 'TDN Rising Star' Marconi has plenty of upside and may be the only runner in this field of six that actually wants this 1 1/8-miles distance. His maiden win over track and trip is much better than it looks on paper and he was recently flattered by the distant third-place finisher that day Roaming Union, who returned to graduate by 12 1/4 lengths with an 89 Beyer at the Big A Jan. 18. The half-brother to GI Breeders' Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man still may have some growing up to do, but watch out when he figures it all out. Selection: #2 Marconi (3-1).
GII Holy Bull S. – Was high enough on Free Drop Billy last year to give him another chance off a too bad to be true non-effort in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. The 2017 GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity winner fired a five-furlong bullet at Gulfstream Jan. 27 and picks up the red-hot jockey Luis Saez, who can do no wrong at this meeting. Should sit a nice, ground-saving trip from his inside draw. Selection: #2 Free Drop Billy (6-1).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – Yes, the narrow Eddie Logan S. runner-up Inscom lost by 27 3/4 lengths in his only other attempt on dirt in his Los Al debut as the 4-5 favorite last September. The son of Distorted Humor, however, breezed smart enough on dirt to bring $850,000 as a Fasig-Tipton May juvenile last year and had so much of a disastrous trip in that debut run that he's definitely worth another look if the right price is right here. Selection: #6 Inscom (6-1).
DiDONATO: GIII Withers S. – I really liked the race Firenze Fire ran last time, but I'm with the rest of the world in thinking he's likely to have distance limitations. Regally bred Marconi is the type of horse I'd rather get a bigger price on, but that's not going to happen in a field of this size. He's obviously talented and proven at the distance–he just needs to overcome his immaturity. Selection: #2 Marconi (3-1).
GII Holy Bull S. – This is a really interesting race, but I'd like to see one more start from each of these horses before actually generating a strong opinion. His 6-1 morning line quote seems decidedly unrealistic, but Free Drop Billy is as good a play as any–his first four races were very strong and there are reasons to cross out his Juvenile no-show. If he's the Albaugh runner who scratches, I'll take Audible as an alternative. Selection: #2 Free Drop Billy (6-1).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – I really liked Lombo's :10 2/5 breeze at OBS March, and bet him in his first two starts, but not when he actually put it all together third out, of course. His connections show confidence in him by wheeling him back quickly, he looks like the speed of the speed, and there's reason to believe he'll stretch out successfully. The Graydars have mostly seemed route-leaning to me, Lombo's dam was a SW/GSP turf miler, and second dam was Grade I-placed over this track and trip. Selection: #4 Lombo (5-1).
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