Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets – highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeRosa: GII Fountain of Youth S. – Storm Runner made a move before checking and fading to seventh behind his stablemate. Bankroll: $770.
GII Tampa Bay Derby – I can't ignore the handicapping aids I use (Brisnet Speed, Class, Prime Power, Optix, and Predicteform) all pointing to World of Trouble as the fastest animal at this trip. Selection: #8 World of Trouble (5-1).
GII San Felipe S. – The most exciting weekend from a volume standpoint has the most exciting matchup to date as well, as the McKinzie-Bolt D'Oro showdown is the most anticipated of the three Kentucky Derby points races. In the marquee match-up, we'll take McKinzie to win this round, as I prefer his current form: he's won two graded stakes since two-time GISW Bolt d'Oro finished third as the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and he hasn't had any misses in his training. Both are interesting from a Kentucky Derby standpoint, but McKinzie seems more poised for victory here. Selection: #4 McKinzie (8-5).
GIII Gotham S. – I find this the toughest of the trio from a handicapping perspective. Free Drop Billy and Firenze Fire will both be overbet. I wish I had a stronger alternative at a decent price. This is a rare case where I'll be boxing a bunch against the favorites in the pari-mutuel market, but for this contest I need to make a singular pick, and I landed on Old Time Revival, as I think he is the one most likely to stick around the expected fast pace. Selection: #7 Old Time Revival (15-1).
Sherack: GII Fountain of Youth S. – Tweeted out Gotta Go (sixth at 21-1) as an alternate after the late scratch of Free Drop Billy. Any chance you guys give me a refund instead? Bankroll: $1050.
GII Tampa Bay Derby – Vino Rosso got going a little too late in a very promising third-place finish–his first career defeat–in the local prep for this and the addition of blinkers may be the missing piece to the puzzle. Pletcher continues to dominate this race winning four out of the last five renewals and everything he's been sending out at Tampa this meet has been super live. Can't wait to see this son of Curlin stretch out even further. Selection: #3 Vino Rosso (4-1).
GII San Felipe S. – Doesn't look like much of a betting race, but this is definitely the showdown that everyone has been waiting for. Was probably more visually impressed by Bolt d'Oro last season, but considering his tendencies to break slow and missed time earlier this winter, will give the slight edge to McKinzie for this round. A perfect three-for-three with some help from the stewards, have to believe that Baffert has him ready to roll first off the bench. Selection: #4 McKinzie (8-5).
GIII Gotham S. – Made my case for Free Drop Billy in last weekend's Fountain of Youth and the re-routed Dale Romans trainee looks like the one to beat cutting back to a one-turn mile here. The early-pace scenario, headed by the presence of his speedy stablemate Cove Blue, should help set him up very well. Interested in longshots Dial Operator and Beautiful Shot for underneath. Selection: #6 Free Drop Billy (9-5).
DiDonato: GII Fountain of Youth S. – Chalking out didn't work out how I'd hoped, as Good Magic was a somewhat dull third. The jury's still out on him and that race as a whole, I suppose. Bankroll: $2240.
GII Tampa Bay Derby – I hate to take the horse who I expect at least Steve to also take, but Vino Rosso simply seems like the right one. The lightly raced colt appeared kind of lost out there for much of the GII Sam F. Davis, but finally figured it out when it was too late and was gaining on Flameaway and Catholic Boy at the wire before galloping out in front. If ever there was a candidate for blinkers, it's him. Selection: #3 Vino Rosso (4-1).
GII San Felipe S. – Since my chalky selection of Good Magic went so well last week, I'll take his rival Bolt d'Oro here. He was obviously crazy good last year, and if he returns as good or better he's still the horse they have to beat despite the recency edge his competitors have. Selection: #1 Bolt d'Oro (2-1).
GIII Gotham S. – Dial Operator went on my watch list after a very impressive debut win in which he rallied from far back–not something easy to do at Monmouth going five furlongs. He was equally impressive blowing past Laurel optional claimers like they were standing still last time. Obviously, the stretch out from 5 1/2 furlongs to a mile is tricky, but it comes around one turn, and on pedigree he should be able to see out the trip. Dial Operator should get plenty of pace in front of him, and it's kind of interesting that he's running here given his Grade I-winning stablemate Firenze Fire is also entered. Selection: #1 Dial Operator (10-1).
Not a subscriber? Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts.
