Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires .com takes on TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after the Lexington S. wins.
DeROSA – Bankroll $2,720.
Last Week – State of Honor cashes more checks than 7-11, and his generous place prices have allowed me to tread water in the Triple Crown Throwdown. Unfortunately, I got off the Pletcher train last weekend, allowing Sherack to pad his lead with Always Dreaming. My Louisiana Derby pick, Local Hero, ran OK for third but was no match for winner Girvin, who is the only horse I'm remotely excited about from a Kentucky Derby perspective among those who ran last week.
As for this week and catching Steve with only five races left I have to decide whether I'm going for a bomb to catch up or try to grind away at him, and it'll be the latter approach this week, as I'm having a difficult time getting creative.
GII Blue Grass S. – The Blue Grass has the shortest field of this weekend's races but is certainly the deepest on talent with current Derby favorite McCraken taking on Grade I winner Practical Joke, and 50-point race winners Tapwrit and J Boys Echo. I'll lay the favorite in this spot, and from a wagering standpoint hope to get live to both Tapwrit and Practical Joke in the multis, but for the purpose of the Throwdown I'm throwing down on Practical Joke, who should prefer this trip better whereas Tapwrit might be more a “go” next out (in the Kentucky Derby). If both are 5-2 or higher, though, there are worse duos to dutch in the win pool. Selection: #7 Practical Joke (7-2).
GII Wood Memorial S. – This week's races come down to your tolerance to forgive poor efforts and/or lean on consistency. Of all the horses running this weekend, though, I'm most excited to bet Irish War Cry. I'd hate him trying to rebound in the Kentucky Derby, but the Wood Memorial is a different animal: 12 fewer horses, a furlong shorter distance, and just overall less pressure than the First Saturday in May. We may never see this price on Irish War Cry again (outside the Triple Crown races). Selection: #8 Irish War Cry (7-2).
GI Santa Anita Derby – Iliad has flashed the most talent of anyone in the Santa Anita Derby, and I'll play that to continue. I'm less concerned with the stretchout as others considering his sire, and if Mastery weren't in the last race Iliad would probably be even money here. Selection: #9 Iliad (7-2).
DiDONATO – Bankroll: $1570.
Last Week – Sherack's just running up the score at this point. . . very poor sportsmanship. State of Honor ran a decent race to be second in the Florida Derby after being very keen early. Senior Investment seemed sort of lost out there for most of the Louisiana Derby, but put in a decent run late. Not sure what to make of that effort.
GII Blue Grass S. – There are really only so many ways I can go in this short, solid field, but at least I can make a legitimate case for a longshot, even though I fear Steve might end up on him too. Wild Shot was a good third behind Classic Empire after setting a strong pace in the GI Breeders' Futurity here last October, and checked in second to McCraken in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club after again racing close to solid splits. He found himself farther back, but made an eye-catching wide move in the GIII Sam Davis before fading to fourth, and was way more out of it before again filling out the Tapwrit-topped trifecta in the GII Tampa Bay. Wild Shot's only chance here is to return to his old running style. He probably won't be able to hold off the bigger names despite how slow the splits are, but at his expected price, he's worth a flyer. Selection: #5 Wild Shot (15-1).
GII Wood Memorial S. – I went back and forth between taking Battalion Runner and Irish War Cry–I'm high on both of them, but eventually decided to go with the expected better price. Irish War Cry closed slightly shorter in the final future pool, but Battalion Runner has the Pletcher hype behind him, so I think he might get bet a bit more–he's much shorter on the morning line. I have no idea what to make of Irish War Cry's last race, but since he's coming back for this, I'm willing to give him a pass–maybe it was the hot pace or just an off day. I'd still like to see the Curlin colt relax a bit more like he did in his debut, and hopefully he will with a new rider this time. Selection: #8 Irish War Cry (7-2).
GI Santa Anita Derby – Good to see a nice, big, competitive field for this race. Battle of Midway gave the impression of a horse who wanted more ground when breaking his maiden first out by daylight here, and he just seemed sort of run off his feet in the GII San Vicente S. He was hung wide throughout in a salty allowance last time, and outkicked return rival Reach the World, who also ran very well. The son of Grade I winner Rigoletta seems to still have plenty of upside, and I'm hoping for a few ticks above his morning line quote. Selection: #3 Battle of Midway (5-1).
SHERACK – Bankroll: $5210.
Last Week – My GI Florida Derby selection Always Dreaming turned in the kind of performance that wins on the First Saturday in May and his Todd Pletcher-trained stablemate Patch (can I get a future wager on him for the Belmont anywhere?) ran a good one in defeat to complete the exacta in the GII Louisiana Derby… Does DeRosa really think he still has a chance to catch me?
GII Blue Grass S. – Even with a pace scenario that will likely work against him in a small field, it's still awfully difficult to side against the unbeaten McCraken. The stretch-running Whitham homebred appears to be thriving since arriving in Lexington after suffering a minor setback following his impressive win in Tampa's GIII Sam F. Davis S. Feb. 11 and should only continue to improve as the distances further increase this spring on the road to Louisville. Selection: #2 McCraken (7-5).
GII Wood Memorial S. – I'm willing to give Mo Town another chance (especially if he's anywhere near his morning-line quote) to show what he's got after an extremely disappointing run as the heavy favorite in his sophomore debut in the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. The best race of his young career came right here in South Ozone Park in last November's GII Remsen S. and getting re-united with leading rider Javier Castellano can't exactly be a bad thing, either. Draws well inside and could sit a perfect trip just behind the speed if he's good enough. Selection: #2 Mo Town (6-1).
GI Santa Anita Derby – Like my two opponents, made my case for Kimbear in the GIII Sunland Derby, and will stick with him as he shows up in this much tougher spot instead. Turned in a very visually impressive maiden win over my boy Sonneteer going seven furlongs in his sixth career start in Arcadia and ran well in defeat behind morning-line favorite Iliad in his only other attempt sprinting on dirt at Los Al back in December. The price will be beyond generous to see if he can stay the distance versus this deep group. Will tie him in the gimmicks to Reach the World and Battle of Midway. Selection: #7 Kimbear (12-1).
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