What’s Not For Sale

WHAT’S NOT FOR SALE 
With Arqana running today through Tuesday, and Fasig Maryland’s mixed sale on Monday, those sales will wrap up the 2014 North American and European commercial auction marketplace. Whereas last year saw gains in the neighborhood of 30%, this year has been more about consolidation; in most respects, the market is more or less level with 2013. 

One exception was the Tattersalls December Sale of ‘Mares etc.,’ which ended Thursday. That sale saw a decline of almost 14.7-million guineas (23%) in aggregate, and a decline of 19% in average. This would be alarming if it signaled a sudden reversal in momentum and a decline in the overall market, but it does not. We have a tendency to repeat ourselves at the Mixed sales: whereas the availability of pedigrees is more stable at the yearling sales, there can be wide variation at the broodmare sales, of which the Ned Evans Dispersal at Keeneland November 2011 is a good example. 

This week’s sale is another good example: if they’re not presented at auction, you can’t buy them at the sales. That’s what happened at Tattersalls earlier this week, and there is one interesting little statistic that proves it. The week was off about 14.7-million guineas. If we make the assumption that horses this year are actually worth about the same as horses last year, there’s no reason to assume horses that sold for 500,000 guineas last year are suddenly worth 23% less; they aren’t. What happened was, there were fewer available: 

At the 2013 December Mare Sale, 25 horses sold for 500,000 gns or more. Total cost: 27,800,000 gns, including two at 4-million-plus. 

At the 2014 December Mare Sale, 13 horses sold for 500,000 gns or more. Total cost: 14,380,000 gns, with only Just The Judge making 4-million-plus. 

The number of horses sold for 500,000 gns or more declined by 48%, and the difference in gross for horses that sold for 500,000 gns or more totaled 13,420,000 gns, and accounted for 91% of the decline in gross revenues in this section of the sale from 2013 to 2014. As many mares and fillies that did get sold for big money this year, it wasn’t as many as last year. Moreover, if you look at the respective gross receipts by year in the Weekly Sales Ticker (top table, ‘Gross’ column) it’s evident that last year’s gross of almost 63-million gns, resulting from so many good mares and broodmare prospects being offered, was the exception rather than the rule; the mare sale gross was around 44-million gns in 2011 and 2012. 

Yesterday’s TDN (click here) included the top 50 overall sires and the top 25 freshman sires both by weanling and covering sire average. Looking first at the top 50 sires on weanlings by average (click here), the first observation we’d make is that Gainesway Farm’s Tapit was the only sire to average over $500,000 with more than four sold–he had eight sell, from eight offered, for an average of $820,625, which ranks him third. Juddmonte’s Frankel, as we’ve discussed, had just three sell from seven offered, and still averaged over $1 million. Claiborne’s War Front had just one sell ($850,000), Darley’s Dubawi two ($640,218), Coolmore’s Galileo three ($515,101), and Darley Kentucky’s Medaglia d’Oro four ($505,000). Juddmonte’s Oasis Dream, like Tapit, went eight-for-eight, for an average of $348,403. Spendthrift’s Malibu Moon had nine foals average $264,667, while the Gilltown Stud’s Sea The Stars had the highest number sell of any horse in the top 50, with 24 foals averaging $234,323. 

One of the more interesting developments at this year’s sales was the sudden scarcity of Dubawi. Two yearlings at Arqana and one at Keeneland September were bought by other interests, but since October 1 all 10 yearlings by Dubawi and both foals by him sold at auction were bought by Maktoum interests: John Ferguson, Shadwell, or Rabbah. There aren’t many outside mares going to him either. 

Frankel was of course the runaway leader among F2014 Freshman Sires (click here). Haras de Bonneval’s Redoute’s Choice, from his first French crop, has had two foals average $212,305, with two more catalogued at Arqana, but among freshman sires standing their first crop ever in 2013, Newsells Park’s Nathaniel made a good impression, with 18 foals averaging the equivalent of $146,898. Lane’s End’s Union Rags ($133,941) and WinStar’s Bodemeister ($118,739) led North American F2014 sires by weanling average. 

Six sires have covering sire averages over $1 million (click here), headed by Claiborne’s War Front, whose eight mares in foal have averaged $2,498,523, just ahead of Galileo, whose only two mares sold in foal have averaged $2,438,186. Ten mares in foal to Tapit have averaged $1,347,000, while the two mares in foal to Dubawi have averaged $1,345,078. Frankel has had six mares sell in foal for an average of $1,101,902, while WinStar’s venerable Distorted Humor has had five mares in foal sell for an average of $1,068,000. 

Among first-year covering sires (click here), Claiborne’s Orb is the leader with 19 mares in foal averaging $251,053. Germany’s Gestut Fahrhof brought their son of Monsun, Maxios, to the December Sale in Newmarket, where he was a big hit, and one mare in foal to him sold to Australia (where Monsun is the sire of the last two winners of the G1 Melbourne Cup) for 150,000 gns. Coolmore’s Declaration of War had 14 mares average $198,638, just ahead of Ashford’sShanghai Bobby, who had 12 mares in foal average $192,250. Declaration of War, of course, moves from Coolmore to Ashford for 2015. Next come: Al Kazeem (returned to training, $178,707 average for three); Darley Kentucky’s Animal Kingdom (22, averaged $170,773); Coolmore’s Camelot (10, averaged $170,199); and Cheveley Park Stud’s Intello (six, averaged $167,438). There will be some changes in these figures, no doubt, after next week’s sales. 

NEXT COLUMN: Thursday, December 11, including updates after the final two sales.