WinStar Farm TDN Derby Top 12 for Apr. 8

Outside of the Triple Crown races themselves, Saturday's feast of stakes action is the biggest day of the year for 3-year-old males with three Grade I races on the docket. No matter who wins what Saturday, there's little doubt that Nyquist (Uncle Mo) will be the favorite in the GI Kentucky Derby. But who will be the second choice, the third choice, who will come into the race with momentum and without momentum? Those questions and more should be answered in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S., the GI Wood Memorial S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby. Expect a lot of movement in next week's TDN Top 12.

1. NYQUIST (c, Uncle Mo—Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 2
O-Reddam Racing LLC. B-Summerhill Farm (Ky). T-Doug O'Neill.
Sales history: $400,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $230,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP; $180,000 Wlg '13 KEENOV.
Last Start: 1st, GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 15, 1st, GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Oct. 31; 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Sept. 26; 1st, GI Del Mar Futurity, DMR, Sept. 7; 1st GII Best Pal S., DMR, Aug. 8
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Nyquist

With his resounding win over Mohaymen (Tapit) in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby, juvenile champion Nyquist answered every question, but the one about the mile-and-a-quarter GI Kentucky Derby distance. But how big a deal is that anyway? He's won at a mile-and-an-eighth and, like everyone else who will be lining up in the 'Run for the Roses' May 7, he's never been asked to go a mile-and-a-quarter. And how many horses in this era are really bred to thrive at 10 furlongs? The answer is, very few. He could run 13th in the Derby. He might win the Triple Crown. Anything seems possible for a very exciting horse who has been underrated all along.

2. MOHAYMEN (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 1
O-Shadwell Stable. B-Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Kiaran McLaughlin.
Sales history: $2,200,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 4th, GI Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27, 1st, GII Holy Bull S., GP, Jan. 30
1st GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 28; 1st GII Nashua S., AQU, Nov. 4
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Mohaymen
Andrew Caulfield on sire Tapit

The big surprise in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby is not that Mohaymen got beat. It looks like anyone could lose to juvenile champion Nyquist (Uncle Mo). It's that he finished fourth, behind some fairly ordinary horses. What happened? “I think you can just draw a line through that race,” trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said. “The track played a big part of it and also where he was on the track was a factor. The weather was also an issue. It was very hot and muggy. It was a disappointing performance, but we're going to regroup and go to Churchill. We'll get him there and probably work him twice over that track.” Many have dropped Mohaymen below the two spot on their Derby lists, but we see it as unfair to downgrade a horse so severely off one poor effort. He could be the next Thunder Gulch (Gulch). He was a poor fourth in the 1994 GI Blue Grass as the favorite before rebounding to win the Derby at 24-1.

3. DANZING CANDY (c, Twirling Candy—Talkin and Singing, by Songandaprayer)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 3
O-Halo Farms, Jim & Diane Bashor. B-Halo Farms. T-Clifford W. Sise, Jr.
Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Danzing Candy

'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy led every step of the way in the GII San Felipe S. when upsetting Mor Spirit (Eskendereya), but the pace scenario in the GI Santa Anita Derby doesn't appear to be in his favor. Considering that the race includes Denman's Call (Northern Afleet) and Iron Rob (Twirling Candy), it appears almost certain that Danzing Candy will either have to prove that he can rate or risk getting fried in a speed duel. He has the right pilot in big-race jockey Mike Smith. Should he win Saturday, he'll head to Kentucky as the leader of the Southern California contingent.

4. MOR SPIRIT (r, Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 4
O-Michael Lund Petersen. B-Elkstone Group LLC (PA). T-Bob Baffert.
Sales history: $650,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $85,000 Ylg '14 FTKOCT.
Last Start: 2nd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st, https://wp.tdn.pmadv.com/race-replays/0/201512191855L7D8/GIII Robert B. Lewis S., Feb. 6, SA; 1st, GI Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 19
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Mor Spirit

Though he was no better than second-best when facing 'TDN Rising Star' Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy) in the GII San Felipe S., he very well could be the favorite in Saturday's GI Santa Anita Derby. Part of that is due to the Bob Baffert mystique, along with the fact that some still don't believe in “Danzing.” Baffert has won this race a remarkable seven times going back to 1996. Two of the last four Santa Anita Derby winners, California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) and I'll Have Another (Flower Alley), have gone on to win the GI Kentucky Derby.

5. GUN RUNNER (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 5
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm. B-Besilu Stables. T-Steve Asmussen.
Last Start: 1st, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 20
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Gun Runner

Gun Runner has already arrived at Churchill Downs and is one of the first Derby contenders to get a feel for the track. He worked four furlongs there on Monday in :50 3/5. It's worth noting that the only loss of his career came at Churchill in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. last year, but that was over a sloppy track. He has also won beneath the Twin Spires, breaking his maiden there going one mile Sept. 11. As good as he is, trainer Steve Asmussen has not had a lot of luck in the Derby. He is zero for 13 with only two horses (Nehro 2011, Curlin 2007) having finished among the top three. Jockey Florent Geroux will be making his GI Kentucky Derby debut.

6. CUPID (c, Tapit—Pretty 'n Smart, by Beau Genius)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 6
O-Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith. B-JKG Thoroughbreds. T-Bob Baffert
Sales history: $900,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Start: 1st, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 19
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 16
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on sire Tapit

Going for $900,000, Cupid was the most expensive colt sold on Day One of the 2014 Keeneland September Sale. He was purchased by M.V. Magnier, who had this to say to the TDN at the time about the horse who would go on to win the GII Rebel S. and become a Derby contender. “[Trainer] Bob Baffert says that (Cupid's half-brother) Indianapolis is a very good horse and his brother [we bought] last year is meant to be pretty good. Hopefully now, this fellow will do the same–the lads liked him. He'll most likely stay in America–we'll bring him back to Ashford and we'll decide.” Indianapolis (Medaglia d'Oro) won the 2014 San Pedro S. Cupid's full brother, Dream Team, is one for six with lifetime with earnings of $51,260.

7. SHAGAF (c, Bernardini—Muhaawara, by Unbridled's Song)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 7
O/B-Shadwell Stable. T-Chad Brown
Last Start: 1st, GIII Gotham S., AQU, Mar. 5
Next Start: GI Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs
Andrew Caulfield on Shagaf

Could 'TDN Rising Star' Shagaf possibly be viewed as Shadwell's top threat for the GI Kentucky Derby after Saturday? When Mohaymen (Tapit) was rolling that seemed impossible, but what will things look like after the GI Wood Memorial S.? Should Shagaf win the Wood, he will go into Derby Week as an undefeated horse with a Grade I win to his credit. This is not the best Wood Memorial we've seen and Shagaf still hasn't run faster than an 88 Beyer number or a 3 2/3 on the Thoro-Graph sheets, so he's going to need a huge race Saturday to be viewed as a leading Derby threat. But…you never know.

8. DESTIN (c, Giant's Causeway—Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 8
O-Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC. B-James C. Weigel & Taylor Made Stallions Inc. T-Todd Pletcher
Sales history: $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Star: 1st, GII Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis, TAM, Feb. 13
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

The Destin team is going against the grain by giving their colt eight weeks off prior to the GI Kentucky Derby. The other option would have been to race in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. Saturday. Randy Gulatt of the ownership group Twin Creeks Racing explains the decision, “We feel like we got four really good races into him, each one one month apart,” he said. “We feel like we've got his mind and his fitness where we want them. To take our best shot to win the Kentucky Derby, we believe the best thing for Destin is to come in fresh and ready. I am a big fan of the Blue Grass and it's a career-making race I'd love to win, but we're more concerned about doing too much and then not having Destin 100% for the Derby. With Todd's training ability, eight weeks should not be an issue.”

9. EXAGGERATOR (c, Curlin—Dawn Raid, by Vindication)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 9
O-Big Chief Racing, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Rocker O Ranch, LLC et al. B-Joseph B. Murphy (Ky). T-Keith Desormeaux.
Sales history: $110,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 3rd, GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 12
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot, DED, Nov. 21; 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 16
Next Start: GI Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

It's time to put up or shut up. Exaggerator was second behind Nyquist (Uncle Mo) in the GII San Vicente S., but then didn't improve a bit when a tiring third in the GII San Felipe S. He didn't finish up strongly that day and even trainer Keith Desormeaux has questioned how far his colt wants to go. He'll have enough points to run in the Derby no matter how he fares Saturday, but he needs a big performance at Santa Anita or else he'll be an afterthought on the first Saturday in May.

10. ZULU (c, Bernardini–Temporada, by Summer Squall)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 10
O-Stonestreet Stables LLC, Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith. B-Ron Magers & Robert Marcocchio. T-Todd Pletcher
Sales history: $900,000 2yo '15 FTFMAR; $400,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP
Last Start: 2nd, GII Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

This horse remains a tough read. He's talented but how talented and will his inexperience catch up with him? 'TDN Rising Star' Zulu didn't make his first start until Dec. 5 and Saturday's GI Toyota Blue Grass S. will be only his fourth lifetime start. He put himself into the Derby mix with a second-place finish behind Mohaymen (Tapit) in the GII Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth S., but that race doesn't look quite so good now that Mohaymen stubbed his toe in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby. It's also interesting to note that Todd Pletcher is putting blinkers on for Saturday's race, something he doesn't often do. According to BRISNET statistics, between 2010 and 2015, Pletcher went with that angle only 209 times from 6022 starters. With blinkers on, he won 22% of the time, a bit below his overall winning rate of 25%. The Blue Grass should answer a lot of questions.

11. MO TOM (c, Uncle Mo—Caroni, by Rubiano)
Mar. 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 11
O-GMB Racing. B-Hargus & Sandra Sexton & Silver Fern Farm. T-Tom Amoss.
Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '14 KEESEP.
Last Start: 4th, GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26
Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII LeComte S., FG, Jan. 16; 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Nov. 1
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7
Thoro-Graph Sheet, Equineline PPs

Mo Tom's dam, Caroni, is a lot better broodmare than she was a race horse. A New York-bred by Rubiano, she ran seven times and never once hit the board. She earned all of $908. But Mo Tom is her third stakes winner, as she has also produced Pan Zareta winner Beautician (Dehere) and Bella Castani (Big Brown), who won the Tweedside S. Mainly because he's had such bad trips in his last two starts, Mo Tom has only 32 Derby points, but that's ordinarily more than enough to get into the field.

12. WHITMORE (g, Pleasantly Perfect–Melody's Spirit, by Scat Daddy)
March 30 TDN Top 12 Rank: 12
O-Robert V. LaPenta, Harry T. Rosenblum and Southern Springs Stable. B-John Liviakis. T-Ron Moquett
Last Start: 2nd, GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 19
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 16
Thoro-Graph sheet, Equineline PPs

Breeder John Liviakis said people laughed at him when he decided to breed his mare, Melody's Spirit, to Pleasantly Perfect after an exhaustive study. “I know he's not a commercial sire, but it was the right mating at the time and he presented just what I needed. People aren't laughing any more,” he said. The mating produced Derby contender Whitmore, who has made $375,000. The bad news is that Liviakis sold the horse privately as a 2-year-old for $35,000 even though he was very high on the individual. He explained that he needed to sell off some assets because of recent setbacks in the stock market. “That's a pathetic amount.” he said. “It's embarrassing, but that's what I sold him for.” He did so after advisors told him they didn't believe Whitmore would sell for much at the 2-year-old sales because people would be turned off by the fact his sire is Pleasantly Perfect.

Click sire's name for Progeny PPs; dam name for Stakes-Winning Pedigrees; last race for video replay.

ON THE BUBBLE:

Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway): Really needs a big race in GI Toyota Blue Grass S. to re-establish his credentials for the Derby. Interesting to see jockey Lanerie stick with stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Cherry Wine (Paddy O'Prado) over this one. Luis Saez is the new rider.

Creator (Tapit): By Tapit, a late-developer, looks like he can run all day. GI Belmont S. winner?

Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat): Has been MIA since finishing fourth in the GIII Withers S. Jan. 30. His Derby hopes hinge on a good performance in the GI Wood Memorial S. at the Big A Saturday.

Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini): Doesn't look like he has enough points (14) to make the Derby.

Laoban (Uncle Mo): Runner-up in the GII Gotham S., will try to stamp his ticket to the Derby with a good showing in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S.

Lani (Tapit): If he gets the assignment on Lani, Japanese jockey Yutaka Take will make his second appearance in the Derby. He also rode Japanese shipper Ski Captain (Storm Bird) to a 14th-place finish in 1995.

Andrew Caulfield on Lani

Majesto (Tiznow): Runner-up in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby, he'll be among the longer shots in the Derby field.

Oscar Nominated (Kitten's Joy) If only the GI Kentucky Derby were run on the grass or a synthetic surface…

Andrew Caulfield on Oscar Nominated

Outwork (Uncle Mo): Looks like Velazquez chose this one over GI Toyota Blue Grass S. starter and 'TDN Rising Star' Zulu.

Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft): Needs a big effort in the GI Arkansas Derby to even stay on the bubble.

Swipe (Birdstone): Tall order to get ready for the Derby off one prep and after an injury, but Keith Desormeaux will give it a try with a horse bred by TDN columnist Bill Oppenheim's wife, Lou.

Tom's Ready (More Than Ready): Will give it a go for owners of New Orleans Saints and Pelicans of the NBA.

Click here to visit the Derby Top 12 section of our website, complete with video past performances, Equibase PPs, and Thoro-Graph sheets.