TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato will make $50 Win/Place bets on each Kentucky Derby prep and Triple Crown race. The handicapper with the highest bankroll after the Belmont Stakes wins. Scratches will result in the post time favorite.
Last Week – Well, it was nice to finally cash a ticket, but, man, that was a tough beat on Azar (finished second, beaten a neck at 8-1) in the Spiral… Failed to pick up any more ground on DiDonato after siding with Mohaymen in the Xpressbet.com Florida Derby, but thankfully still have some bullets left to fire as we approach the homestretch in prep season. Total: $562.50.
GI Toyota Blue Grass S. – With more than enough early speed signed on, this race couldn't set up any better for the very promising 'TDN Rising Star' My Man Sam (Trappe Shot). A jaw-dropping eight-length maiden winner after trailing by as many as 15 lengths over the Big A inner surface in his route debut Jan. 31, the bay received the perfect prep race in Ozone Park last time, finishing a rallying second behind Wood Memorial contender Matt King Coal, who was allowed a pretty easy early lead that day. While the 10-1 morning-line quote seems a bit impossible (wouldn't be surprised to see him as low as second choice here), hoping that the outside draw scares some supporters away. The other two stretch-runners from the Dale Romans barn make a lot of sense in this one, too. Selection: #14 My Man Sam (10-1).
GI Wood Memorial S. – It really looks like the two best horses both want to be controlling things early here. While I give Outwork (Uncle Mo) the slight edge to survive that head-to-head battle, I will shop for a bit of a price with Flexibility (Bluegrass Cat). Chad Brown's 'other horse' ran a couple of big seconds behind Mohaymen over this strip at two, including the GII Remsen S. at today's distance. He finally escaped the gray's shadow with a breakthrough win in the GIII Jerome S., then endured a pretty awful trip when fourth as the heavy favorite in the GIII Withers S. Jan. 30. He's been freshened since and should get a pretty good set-up if he's good enough. Selection: #5 Flexibility (8-1).
GI Santa Anita Derby – While trainer Keith Desormeaux's recent comments don't exactly instill confidence that Exaggerator (Curlin) wants this nine-furlong trip, I'm going to give him one more shot. I made my case for him in the GII San Felipe S. and was left with the impression that it was more of the aggressive early move into a hot pace than distance limitations that led to his tiring in deep stretch to finish a close third. Hopeful that this race can unfold a little differently with the presence of some speedy stretch-out sprinters. Selection: #2 Exaggerator (4-1).
Last Week – I guess I shouldn't have tried to get too fancy in the Xpressbet.com Florida Derby and should've just gone with Nyquist, who was very impressive. Takeittotheedge, meanwhile, went right to his nose at the start and never recovered. Don't think that's the last we'll hear of him… Surgical Strike ran very well after going crazy wide to be third in the Spiral. Can't see anyone from that race making any impact in a Derby run on dirt. Total: $1052.50.
GI Toyota Blue Grass S. – There's clearly a ton of pace signed on here, and it's hard to imagine this race won't set up for a closer. I'll use a number of the horses that come from out of it in exotics, but ultimately I couldn't talk myself off Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway) as my top pick. He made a big, good-looking run to upset the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity last October, and ran on well to fill out the trifecta when simply left with too much to do in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. I honestly have no idea what to make of his flop in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, and it sounds like trainer Dale Romans doesn't either. The Tampa surface is notoriously quirky, and he probably needed a race off the bench, so hopefully he'll return with his best at his favorite track. Selection: #6 Brody's Cause (4-1).
GI Wood Memorial S. – Matt King Coal (Cool Coal Man) and Outwork (Uncle Mo) are simply huge standouts to me, and I think they'd need to engage in an unnecessary duel or something for one not to win–they may very well run one-two start to finish. I went back and forth quite a bit on who to actually pick. I took Outwork last time in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he nearly got the job done, but I decided to try Matt King Coal this time. He seems more likely to get the lead, and perhaps that will prove the edge. I like how strongly he galloped out last time–he wouldn't let My Man Sam by, and that one has a big chance in the Blue Grass. Selection: #6 Matt King Coal (3-1).
GI Santa Anita Derby – Before really digging into this race, I expected to make the argument that more pace pressure and added distance would be the great equalizer here and allow Mor Spirit (Eskendereya) to turn the tables on Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy). After watching the GII San Felipe S. again, I'm not so sure. Danzing Candy was simply way the best that day, and there's no reason he can't work out a comfortable trip either back on the lead or just off it. His sire was a MGSW at the distance and his dam's a half to Better Talk Now, so he should see out the trip. Selection: #3 Danzing Candy (3-1).
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