TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato will make $50 Win/Place bets on each Kentucky Derby prep and Triple Crown race. The handicapper with the highest bankroll after the Belmont Stakes wins. Scratches will result in the post time favorite.
Last Week – Well, it's refreshing to know that my picks are equally awful on the other side of the world, too. I guess Vale Dori didn't run that poorly after watching again, but I'm still not sure what happened to Greenpointcrusader… Back to the drawing board. Total: $337.50.
GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby – As much as I want to be a wiseguy and pick an alternative in this highly anticipated “match race,” I just can't do it. Other than having to deal with an extreme outside post in a race that begins right on the clubhouse turn, it's nearly impossible to knock Mohaymen (Tapit). He obviously loves the track and seems to win with something left each time, too. I'll side with him for Throwdown purposes (I really did go back and forth on this quite a bit), but can't fault those supporting the unbeaten champion either, who returned from the bench with a visually impressive tally in the seven-furlong GII San Vicente S. at Santa Anita Feb. 15. It really doesn't get much better than this. Selection: #9 Mohaymen (1-1).
GIII Spiral S. – Other than a non-effort over a yielding going in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland, Azar (Scat Daddy) has done very little wrong to this point in his career. His tactical speed has placed him into some very good trips, including a maiden win in Saratoga's GII With Anticipation S. and a narrow defeat in Belmont's GIII Pilgrim S., both on grass last September. His 3-year-old form has been solid as well. Some late traffic trouble really hurt him in Gulfstream's Kitten's Joy S. (he was moved up to second via disqualification) and he most recently ground his way to a measured 1X victory while making his dirt debut in Hallandale Feb. 28. With regular rider Johnny V remaining in South Florida for Gulfstream's blockbuster Florida Derby card, Azar picks up the services of Manny Franco, who guided home Far From Over for this barn in last year's GIII Withers S. Should be right there with every chance with a stalking trip if his grass form translates to the synthetic. Selection: #12 Azar (5-1).
Last Week – I wasn't crazy about Vale Dori going to the lead in the UAE Derby, but it wouldn't have mattered… Winner Lani is going to be a very, very tough read for the Kentucky Derby–overcame a rough trip and clearly has some talent, but what was he beating? In the Louisiana Derby, on the other hand, I was happy to see Candy My Boy out on a pretty easy lead. He simply wasn't good enough. Total: $1052.50.
GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby – Everyone is treating this like a match race between Nyquist (Uncle Mo) and Mohaymen (Tapit), and for good reason–they're simply giant stand-outs in terms of accomplishments. If I had to choose one for Saturday, I'd go with the former, who ran a big race first off the bench last time and just hasn't gotten the respect he's probably earned at this point. But is either one really the next American Pharoah? I'm not so sure, and instead I'll take a shot with a horse who I think has tons of talent, even if he finds himself in a very tough spot (no, I'm not calling him the next American Pharoah). Takeittothedge (Broken Vow) was named a 'TDN Rising Star' for a visually impressive front-running score here Mar. 5. He struck me as a horse who would appreciate longer distances, and actually kind of resembles fellow Dale Romans trainee Shackleford, who finished second by a head at 68-1 in this race 2011. Takeittotheedge figures to try to steal it here, and if the riders of the favorites spend too much time looking at each other, they may regret it. Selection: #7 Takeittothedge (20-1).
GIII Spiral S. – I picked Kasseopia (GB) (Showcasing {GB}) last time in the GIII El Camino Real Derby, and he ran a gigantic race to be third after a terrible start. The problem is, the whole world saw that trouble, and with Graham Motion having won three renewals of this race already–including two for Team Valor–I have a feeling we won't be seeing Kasseopia at anything close to his 6-1 morning line. He's a must-use, but instead I'll pick longshot Surgical Strike (Red Giant), who really blew out the field in the local prep for this, and could get lost on the board. Selection: #2 Surgical Strike (12-1).
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