TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato will make $50 Win/Place bets on each Kentucky Derby prep and Triple Crown race. The handicapper with the highest bankroll after the Belmont Stakes wins. Scratches will result in the post time favorite.
Apr. 16 – Great to finally connect on a nice one to grab the lead back from DiDonato. Creator came from out of the clouds to deliver at 11-1 in the Arkansas Derby while Swipe disappointed with a dismal sixth-place finish as the 2-1 favorite in the Lexington. Total: $1862.50.
GI Kentucky Derby – While thinking (more like over thinking) about this race for the past few weeks, I considered several different horses before making my final decision to stick with Creator (Tapit).
First, who I didn't pick (but obviously still like). Mor Spirit (Eskendereya) looked good enough on paper and I thought he had a few things working against him in the last two, but after watching his replays, I just couldn't get excited about him enough to pull trigger, at least not on top for this contest. He looks like he'll appreciate the added distance though and could figure in the exotics at a price. Belmont winner?
I've been such a big fan of My Man Sam (Trappe Shot) since his maiden win and really did love his Blue Grass runner-up finish from that brutal outside post, too, but I really prefer taking horses with more of a foundation for the Derby. Not impossible to see him rallying late for a small piece at a huge price.
Then, after taking a closer look at the projected pace scenario, I started to consider Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy), who may get brave if he finds himself getting into a good rhythm on the front end. Speed is always dangerous, and he is capable of running some awfully fast races if you can excuse his last race in the Santa Anita Derby, where he just never looked happy in the slop after acting up in the starting gate. He will be on a lot of my tickets at what has to be a big price.
Other than being concerned that the early pace wouldn't be hot enough, I just couldn't find any knocks on Creator. He's peaking at the right time and is really thriving with racing experience. His visually impressive maiden win at sixth asking in late February came on a 15-day turnaround, so the three weeks since his Arkansas Derby win shouldn't be an issue, either. He has that eye-catching acceleration that is a huge asset in the Derby, and he was able to knife his way through traffic as well en route to his win in the Oaklawn centerpiece. He's showing all the right signs in the a.m., and newly minted Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen always seems to have a smile on his face–with good reason–whenever the handsome gray has been out to train. I guess the inside draw isn't perfect, but maybe that'll just inflate his odds a little? Selection: #3 Creator (10-1).
Apr. 16 – Big Squeeze was last in the Lexington… Nothing really went right for Cupid in the Arkansas Derby either, and he finished a disappointing 10th before undergoing surgery for an entrapped epiglottis. Preakness maybe? Great job by Steve to land on Creator in the Arkansas Derby and pass me… Still have three chances to take my lead back. Total: $1437.50.
GI Kentucky Derby – Now for the big one… I've watched about a thousand replays, pored over the Beyer and Thoro-Graph figures, run pedigree and past performance reports on every seventh dam–all while listening to a continuous loop of “My Old Kentucky Home” and Dan Fogelberg's “Run for the Roses”–and I think I've narrowed it down to two value horses who interest me the most.
First for the one I didn't end up picking on top: Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft). I just love the this horse's stride and the way he's finished up in each of his races this year. He emerged as a serious Derby candidate when absolutely blowing away his competition from last in the GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15, and had a fairly legitimate excuse when hung up turning for home before making another big run from an impossible spot in the GII Rebel S. All things considered, I think he was best in the GI Arkansas Derby. Again he lost ground entering the lane–allowing Creator to get the jump–but was finishing up best. I wish he was getting a more aggressive rider for the Derby, and fear he's somewhat pace compromised, but I'll definitely be featuring Suddenbreakingnews heavily in exotics.
Speaking of the relative lack of pace in this year's Derby, that was a major contributing factor that lead me to ultimately land on Outwork (Uncle Mo) as a top pick. I liked the Repole homebred in the GII Tampa Bay Derby off a visually impressive sprint optional claiming victory as he looked to me like one who would relish more real estate, and he did well to finish second to stablemate Destin (Giant's Causeway) after showing the way in that event in just his third time out. It amazes me, frankly, how down everyone seems to be on his GI Wood Memorial win. Yes, he was all out to hold off a billion-to-one maiden, but let's not ignore the difference in trips between the one-two finishers. Outwork was pressing an extremely hot pace while wide throughout, while Trojan Nation (Street Cry {Ire}) sat in last, and saved every bit of ground. According to Trakus data, Outwork covered an additional 42 ft.–almost five lengths–more than the runner-up. I don't care if the final time was slow. Outwork ran a huge race, and seems to be thriving since shipping down to Kentucky. I just hope he isn't too hyped off the clocker reports. Selection: #15 Outwork (15-1).
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