TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato will make $50 Win/Place bets on each Kentucky Derby prep and Triple Crown race. The handicapper with the highest bankroll after the Belmont Stakes wins. Scratches will result in the post time favorite.
Sunland Park Festival of Racing S. – Not that I was super confident in my 23-1 shot Walk Out, but, wow, he never ran a step… Let's hope that's the last horse that I pick for quite some time that gets a “Steady Retreat” chart comment. Ouch. Total: $337.50.
G2 UAE Derby – After the late withdrawal of the speedy Market Rally, I've continued to go back and forth on taking either of the two fillies–Polar River (Congrats) or Vale Dori (Arg) (Asiatic Boy {Arg}). I ended up with the latter, who should move forward nicely off that last run off the layoff and she'll also be a much better price. De Kock's record in this race is awfully hard to ignore, too. Not sure where the speed is going to come from now, but there's every chance that Vale Dori didn't prefer having to do the heavy lifting in the Oaks last time. Selection: #5 Vale Dori (9-2).
GII Louisiana Derby – With confirmed front-runner Candy My Boy (Candy Ride {Arg}) signed on, this race should set up much more to the liking of GI Champagne S. winner Greenpointcrusader (Bernardini). Seventh as the 7-2 favorite in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile with his share of excuses, the dark bay had to settle for second behind the unbeaten Mohaymen after being forced to vie for early command in a paceless renewal of the GII Lambholm South Holy Bull S. Jan. 30. As tough as Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) looks off his well-documented stretch woes in the GII Risen Star S., he's still going to have to run down a very classy horse in the stretch in another big field when it all comes down it. Will be boxing Greenpointcrusader with longshots Candy My Boy–he should get away with an easier pace this time around–and impressive Oaklawn allowance winner Conquest Windycity (Tiznow). Selection: #2 Greenpointcrusader (7-2).
Sunland Park Festival of Racing S. – Well, so much for trying to get cute with Bruntino, as Baffert and Pletcher dominated both this race and the one for fillies. Total: $1052.50.
G2 UAE Derby – Note that place betting for this race is more like show wagering in America… To be honest, I've got no clue about this one. I've done alright here in years when there was more European participation, but I've never had any success deciphering Japanese form, so those runners are kind of out for me. I'm also against Polar River (Congrats), I suppose, even though it would be cool to see our first-ever 'TDN Rising Star' from Dubai continue her unbeaten streak. I don't want Frank Conversation (Quality Road) either with this race being on dirt. So, I guess I'm left with Vale Dori (Arg) (Asiatic Boy {Arg}). Was she gaining on Polar River in the G3 UAE Oaks or was that rival being throttled down? Your guess is as good as mine. But she has a right to improve second off the long lay-off, figures to appreciate the distance as a daughter of the 2007 UAE Derby winner, and has the maturity advantage of being a Southern Hemisphere 3-year-old. Selection: #5 Vale Dori (9-2).
GII Louisiana Derby – My first inclination was just to take Mo Tom (Uncle Mo) here, as he would've won the GII Risen Star S. last time with any kind of luck. But he's just too obvious, and the dynamics of this race figure to be significantly different than they were in that one. I completely dismissed Candy My Boy (Candy Ride {Arg}) in the Risen Star because there were two other horses (It's All Relevant and Bistraya) who had the exact same profile as him and figured to ensure a hot pace. The pace was in fact extremely quick, and those two runners finished eighth and ninth, respectively. Candy My Boy, however, who actually set the opening splits of :22.95 and :46.38, finished fourth beaten only 2 1/4 lengths. He figures to take significantly less pressure up front this time, and should love nine furlongs if able to get away with softer splits–his dam was a multiple stakes winner at the trip. I really like this horse at a big price… Selection: #5 Candy My Boy (15-1).
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