TDN's Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato will make $50 Win/Place bets on each Kentucky Derby prep and Triple Crown race. The handicapper with the highest bankroll after the Belmont Stakes wins. Scratches will result in the post time favorite.
GIII Gotham S. – Adventist ran pretty well in defeat while still displaying some signs of immaturity to finish a respectable third at 9-2. Can certainly see him improving with more racing experience. Total: $337.50.
GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby – With an abundance of early speed signed on, it really looks like this couldn't set up any better for the stretch-running morning-line favorite Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway). But with Dale Romans' runners typically needing one off the bench, I'll shop for an alternative. Economic Model (Flatter), a smart debut winner at the Spa last summer, returned from the shelf with a very solid second-place finish behind Awesome Banner (Awesome of Course) in the seven-furlong GII Swale S. at Gulfstream. The Chad Brown trainee had little chance to reel that one in that day, but he did finish up the right way, including a solid gallop out. While his Quiet American dam Queen of America was only a maiden of two attempts going short, her offspring have done quite well routing, including stakes winners Jimmy Simms and Well Monied. Irad Ortiz Jr. makes the trip to ride and this one should find himself within perfect striking distance of what has to be a scorching early pace. Longshot Star Hill (Elusive Quality), a breakthrough maiden winner at fourth asking, will be on my tickets as well. Selection: #4 Economic Model (5-1).
GII San Felipe S. – With a very solid foundation at two and a razor sharp return effort under his belt in the seven-furlong GII San Vicente S., Exaggerator (Curlin) looks awfully tough to look past in this spot. Last term's GII Saratoga Special S. and GIII Delta Downs Jackpot S. winner couldn't have run any better in defeat when chasing home the unbeaten champion Nyquist last time, earning a career-high 98 Beyer in the process. It's hard to believe that he was fully cranked for his best that day and his tactical speed should keep him well-positioned off what figures to be a very lively pace. Cupid (Tapit) is very intriguing at a price off a good-looking maiden win in his two-turn debut for Baffert. Selection: #7 Exaggerator (5-2).
GIII Gotham S. – Adventist ran ok, and might still have a bit more growing up to do, but settled for third. Not sure what to make of that race as a whole. Total: $602.50.
GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby – This might be the most interesting and tricky race we've had to handicap so far in this contest. There are a number of tough judgment calls to make, and some distance questions to answer as well. Brody's Cause (Giant's Causeway) is as close to a Derby horse as I have at this point being that he's the only runner I've made a future wager on, but I kind of want to give him the start here just to see how he's moved forward at three. Instead I'll take a price shot with the unbeaten and pretty much untested Outwork (Uncle Mo)–the “other Pletcher.” Highly touted before he broke his maiden first out at Keeneland last April, the Repole homebred took a local sprint allowance here Feb. 13 by the easiest of 4 1/4-length margins. Stablemate Destin (Giant's Causeway) had annexed the GIII Sam F. Davis S. two races earlier and earned a much higher Beyer Speed Figure, but I was more impressed with Outwork, who looks like a big, powerful colt who should relish this added distance. Selection: #3 Outwork (12-1).
GII San Felipe S. – I was torn here between two very different horses–Cupid (Tapit), the Coolmore-owned, Baffert-trained $900,000 KEESEP yearling; and the unbeaten Smokey Image, a Cal-bred son of Southern Image. I ultimately decided on the latter, who is hard not to compare to California Chrome, a 7 1/2-length winner of this race two years ago off a similarly facile California Cup Derby score. What impressed me so much about Smokey Image last year was that he always found a way to win–he had some tough trips and excuses to not show up, but he managed to find the wire in each of his five juvenile starts. Transferred to Carla Gaines for this season, he took the Cal Cup Derby with Songbird-like ease. The waters are about to get a whole lot deeper, but Smokey Image might just be up to the task. Selection: #6 Smokey Image (4-1).
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